Handicapping the Dania Partido Tournament
Benny Bueno Selections for 1st Round of Partido Tournament and Straymar Selections
Benny Bueno gave his picks for the first round of the Dania Partido Tournament which starts Thursday night, January 5 at the Dania fronton after the 9th pari-mutuel singles game. Anyone can hear the complete discussion on the tourney picks scoop by going to Dania’s YouTube Channel for the Sunday, January 1st games for the between games banter between Benny and announcer Dave LaMont. Note that Benny claims he’s really bad at picking winners and has given up on making predictions, however, here’s the summary of Benny’s first round partido picks along with supporting info.
Match 1, Thursday January 5, #1 Zulaika-Manci vs #8 Etcheberry-Portet
Benny’s Pick: Zulaika-Manci
Why: Zulaika is positive, optimistic and has kill-shots, when Jai-Alai takes the next step Zulaika will be part of the solution
Match 2: Friday January 6, #4 Iturbide-Oyhenard vs #5 Aaron-Laborde
Benny’s Pick: Iturbide-Oyhenard
Why: Iturbide is very positive, good on the court and aggressive, Benny doesn’t see Aaron as an aggressive kill-shot guy, players from Aaron’s hometown are “volley players”
Match 3: Thursday January 12, #3 Laduche-Atain II vs #6 Benetrix-Urbieta
Benny’s Pick: Laduche-Atain II
Why: Laduche is the hottest of the 4-players and Attain II is a perfect partido partner, Benny says that Benetrix is a bit outmatched by Laduche
Match 4: Friday January 13, #2 Bixente-Bailo vs #7 Urrutia-Mandiola
Benny’s Pick: Bixente-Bailo
Why: Bailo gives it everything he has, also notes that Bixente is a quiet guy off and on the court (guessing this means he won’t let his emotions get the best of him)
SayHiLi Team Assessments
Here are the team records by post position for the (8) partido tourney teams from the start of the meet (Dec 1) through January 1.
Now, here’s the money chart, showing the Post-Position Adjusted (PPA) Weighted Factor for each of the double’s teams. This special Straymar Player/Team assessment tool evaluated the limited team statistical data for how teams should have done based on the posts they had compared to how they performed from those posts and also has a weighting for WPS finishes which is similar to the 5-3-1 tourney points, but not exactly, however it’s an optimized weighting based on experience. You need a special security clearance for any more details on how Straymar’s exact PPA method is calculated, and those are harder to get than a government security clearance these days….ha-ha.
So, based on the above actual team data Team PPA Factors (last column), here are Straymar’s predictions:
Match 1: Seed 1 vs 8, Zulaika-Manci the clear advantage 24.2 to 11.6
Match 2: Seed 4 vs 5, Iturbide-Oyenhard the clear advantage 23.1 to 15.4
Match 3: Seed 3 vs 6, Laduche-Atain II the clear advantage 13.8 to 3.4
Match 4: Seed 2 vs 7, Bixente-Bailo the clear advantage 25.9 to 13.7
Note these selections are the top-seeded selections in each partido match as were Benny Bueno’s picks for these four first-round partido matches. Note however, with only 1-month of team data available, there are some issues here with limited data ranging from only 6-13 team pairings for pari-mutuel doubles games. Low data samples can result in flawed team assessments, and one would wonder about the Benetrix-Urbieta team rating of 3.4, which appears to be suspect.
There is another Straymar team evaluation technique which is based on the use of more available data. This involves the Individual Doubles PPA Weighted Method for the Front Court and Back Court player and averages their individual assessments/factors to get an Estimated Team Factor (ETF) or rating. Straymar performs this ETF (2) different ways; for ALL performances of doubles data to-date and for ONLY recent data (the last 12-performances of doubles data, the equivalent of 2-weeks of Dania performances).
Using only the last 12-performances of data for the team estimated assessment makes the Benetrix-Urbieta team a slight favorite over Laduche-Atain II so this could be a very interesting matchup and toss-up scenario for the wagering fans. This is mostly due to the much improved play by Benetrix in the last 12-performances compared to his season average performance in doubles games. Some additional notes of interest on Benetrix are two-fold. Benny mentioned in his between-game sessions on Dania’s YouTube Channel that Benetrix wanted really badly to play at Dania but the slots were filled, thus he was highly motivated. Johan was originally scheduled to play and backed-out from playing the Dania Invitational as he wanted to compete in a tourney in Guernica. Only minutes later after Benny hung up on the cancellation call from Johan, Benetrix called Benny to ask once more about possible openings and thus secured his position on the roster (it was like Benetrix was at Johan’s side when he called Benny to cancel from the Invitational). Also, the improved play by Benetrix in the second half of the meet is probably heavily related to breaking his cesta very early in the meet. Benny has given more details on the Benetrix cesta story several times during the YouTube banter with the announcers. Be sure you don’t miss out on the entertaining YouTube scoop from Benny twice a week (Fridays and Sundays) before the games start and in-between many of the games!
So, in conclusion, the FINAL SELECTIONS by Straymar are the top-seeded teams for Matches 1, 2 and 4 (based on 3-different methods), however Straymar is taking the Benetrix-Urbieta team in Match 3 on Thursday, January 12 based on recent last 12-performances.
Be sure to support both short-court and long-court Jai-Alai options in the USA to help keep this great sport alive and have a Happy New Year! Be sure to catch Magic City’s Battle Court Draft which is slated for Monday, January 9th (check jaialaiworld.com and social media for the draft start time, likely to be 7-pm like the last draft event).
